Projections
From Water Wiki
Projecting and preparing for future water demands is critical to North Carolina's overall well-being. According to the Water 2030 study, conducted in 2004, a growing population will increase industrial, residential and energy needs, thus increasing overall water usage. "The population is expected to grow from 8.5 million in 2004 to 12 million in 2030. Water consumption is expected to increase from 241 billion gallons per year for all household to 335 billion gallons if consumption continues on its current path." As a result, the Water 2030 study called for funding new supply infrastructure, education and addressing policy issues.
However, the USGS water usage survey offers a different perspective on projections. The study states, "The early part of this history (1950 to 1980) showed a steady increase in water use. During this time, the expectation was that as population increased, so would water use. Contrary to expectation, reported water withdrawals declined in 1985 and have remained relatively stable since then. Changes in technology, in State and Federal laws, and in economic factors, along with increased awareness of the need for water conservation, have resulted in more efficient use of the water from the Nation's rivers, lakes, reservoirs, and aquifers."
Thus, it is not a foregone conclusion that as population increases, water demand will increase, especially if technology, legal restrictions and conservation efforts continue. A recent study of Las Vegas water usage states that increasing the efficiency of home appliances and installing water efficient landscapes "can be implemented at a lower cost and with fewer social and environmental impacts than developing new water supplies."[1]
Needless to say, predicting future water usage is a difficult task. As we have seen above, population rates may not be as closely tied to projections as previously thought. However, based on NC's 2000 overall usage structure the state's future water demands will be closely linked to its four largest users - energy production, residential consumption, agriculture and industry. Efficiently managing these uses may negate the need for significant increases in "hard path" solutions (ie. dams, aquaducts, pipelines, etc.).
Peter H. Gleick outlines alternative solutions or "soft-path" solutions. "What is required is a 'soft path,' one that continues to rely on carefully planned and managed centralized infrastructure but complements it with small-scale decentralized facilities." The soft-path takes into consideration convenience, cost-effectiveness and social acceptablity. Gleick's estimates project that urban water use could be reduced by 33%. In his study, "Waste Not, Want Not[2]," Gleick examined California's urban residential, commercial, institutional, and industrial water uses.
More conservative estimates predict that conservation could reduce demand by as much as 25%. [3]
Based on these estimates, conservation efforts alone could reduce NC's daily municipal, farming and industrial water use from 1,835 Mgal/day to 1,376 Mgal/day (from the USGS 2002 data). Overall, conservation could reduce NC's total daily water use from 11,349 Mgal/day to 10,890 Mgal/day.
